China manufacturing sector slowed sharply in November
Latest survey data pointed to a marked slowdown in the Chinese manufacturing economy during November. The headline CLSA China Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) – a composite indicator designed to provide a single-figure snapshot of manufacturing operating conditions – fell from October’s 31-month high of 55.2, to hit an eight-month low of 52.8.
Commenting on the survey, Eric Fishwick, head of economic research at CLSA, said: “The fall in the PMI occurred across a broad range of indicators and must, therefore, be taken seriously. The exception remains prices. The input and output price indices both pushed to record highs in November. What hasn’t changed is the margin squeeze implied by these numbers and in this context the drop in orders and activity indices raises a difficult question. Manufacturers cited rising prices for finished goods as a factor contributing to the slowing of orders suggesting that, if they wish to maintain operating rates, they will have to find ways to absorb continue rises in material costs.”
Underlying the weaker performance of Chinese manufacturing in November was a sharp easing in the rate of expansion of incoming new orders. Softer market demand and increased prices charged for finished goods were cited by panelists as the main reasons dragging growth of new business down to a four-month low. Growth of new export orders was only modest and the slowest since July.
Output price inflation accelerated to a survey record high in November, with around 26 percent of panelists signaling an increase in their charges. Respondents cited the need to offset rising costs, with input price inflation also hitting a series high during the latest month. Panelists widely attributed the strong increase in their cost burdens to higher oil and steel prices.
With volumes of new work rising at a slower pace, production growth also eased in November. Although solid, the rate of expansion of output moderated to the weakest since April and was below the average for the year-to-date.
Manufacturers continued to deplete their inventories of finished goods, with stocks falling for an eighth straight month.
Job creation was maintained for a 20th successive month in November. However, the rate of employment growth was only marginal and the lowest for 17 months, as firms adopted a more cautious approach to hiring.
In line with the slower expansion in production requirements, purchasing activity rose at a weaker rate in November. Growth of input buying eased to a 20-month low, with some panelists reporting the delaying of purchases in the face of steeply increasing costs. With many firms preferring to run down existing stocks, inventories of inputs declined for a fourth consecutive month.
The short-supply of a number of raw materials, combined with a lack of capacity on transportation networks, resulted in a further round of supplier delays in November. Moreover, the rate of lengthening of lead-times accelerated to the sharpest since August 2004. Late deliveries were partly blamed for a 13th successive increase in backlogs of work.